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Post by hamilcar on Apr 10, 2020 14:44:35 GMT
Hello, today is Thursday the 9th April. From what I am seeing on TV, and out of my window, we are going to lose this war. In years to come you are going to be looking back at 2019 as "the good old days" when more than twelve people turned up to completions, and limits of sixteen had to be set. I take this opportunity to send my regards to all of you who loose family members and friends this year and next year (2020/21). Expect the daily death toll to double or treble. David Constable David, The situation is not great, but I doubt it will get quite as bad as that. Keep your chin up and keep safe - there will be times for games! Best, Ivan |
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Post by davidjconstable on Apr 11, 2020 12:18:41 GMT
Hello Ivan
I hope you are correct, but I do not know, wait four weeks to see.
People simply do not realize how easy it is to pass on.
Consider the following thought.
Martin goes from Alton to Worcester and picks me up.
We go on to Alvechurch and pick up Scott.
Now Scott without realizing it is a carrier, in the journey from Alvechurch to Bakewell there is plenty of opportunity for Scott to pass it on to us.
Now in the confined hall at Bakewell it can easily be passed on to everybody else.
They then disperse to pass it on to other people.
Two things to think about.
1 - What if this had been at the Northern Cup.
2 - What if this is London, or ANY/EVERY big city park.
The worst case is if Cv.019 mutates and creates a more deadly version (remote but possible). In this case the Spanish Flu, would be a mere hiccup.
David Constable
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Post by hamilcar on Apr 12, 2020 11:46:50 GMT
David,
The infection rate is apparently 5.7 at the beginning, with no isolation (i.e. every infected person spreads it to about 6 new ones...). This is clearly very contagious and we know this, regardless of circumstances (lift, tournaments, park). It is not very persistent though and hopefully with this isolation malarkey we will bring it to below 1, which means it will decline.
We were caught by it bit flat-footed, with politicians reluctant to spend money and effort on necessities (testing, masks, ventilators...) which means we are now under-powered and playing catch-up, but catch up we will. The same goes for vaccines, though I will carefully consider taking one (and I think we all should, rather than being pushed into it by some government decree - it has been shown time and time again that the government tends toward being clueless and is highly influenced by private interests - especially when in panic).
The bottom line is it will sadly take its toll, but it will be overcome. What the toll could be can be seen from Italy, where nearly 20,000 have died, but it is on the way down. Given that we are comparable in population and unpreparedness, I think it will be similar here. Timing will also be similar - about a couple of months. And if you've been in isolation for more than about 10 days, the chances you will get it are very slim (supposedly, only in a very small number of cases it manifests after more than 10 days since exposure to infection).
Anyway, this is not really a forum for discussing the disease, so from now let's stick to the relevant - DBA. Have you painted anything up?
Best wishes,
Ivan
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